Andy Grove, the late former CEO of Intel, once famously stated: “Only the paranoid survive.” Grove meant it as a kind of operating principle – that even in times of success, businesses needed to stay vigilant to ever-changing threats on the horizon.
Indeed, the problem today for small or midsize businesses is that threats really are everywhere. And it’s not just competition. The threats come in the form of political, societal, environmental, and technological challenges, all of which are rapidly evolving.
We think it’s time to start taking Grove’s advice seriously. Why?
Consider the following:
The Triple Threat Facing the US Right Now
We’re not trying to be alarmists (and our goal here is not to bring anyone down). But you’d be a fool not to have any uneasiness about the current state of things in the U.S. and the world.
In many ways, the writing is on the wall: All U.S. businesses (but particularly small and midsize ones) will be facing significant disruption in the not-so-long term. And if you run a business or find yourself responsible for employees, the need to evolve or change how you do things (maybe completely) is going to become more apparent and perhaps more urgent. Sure, some businesses may be exempt from change in the short-term. But more than ever, we believe it’s critical to start thinking about contingency planning.
Yes, you read that right. Contingency plans. For you. Your business. And any employees you have.
Perhaps you already do that with your existing market and competitive landscape. But the biggest things to consider as part of any future planning will likely involve three significant existential threats that will soon or are already posing a challenge for you, your business, and your customer base.
No. 1 Threat: Dictatorship and Authoritarian Instability
It seems crazy to write this about our own country, yet here we are. As you know from reading our blog, we’re not fans of the current occupant of the White House. We think he’s an absolute moron and a traitor to the country. And, worst of all, he’s bad for business and he’s trying to be a dictator. There’s little argument about that. The authoritarian moves, the anti-immigrant/outwardly racist policies, the imposing of useless tariffs, the cutting of key oversight/regulatory enforcement, the embrace of dictators like Putin, and the always-present gaslighting, lies, and division he spews have already taken its toll on many businesses and individuals who may be your employees, suppliers or customers. And now, he has decided to enter a war with Iran. In a word, his rule is chaos. How can this affect your business?
- Unpredictable Regulations and Price Increases: Yes, the tariffs are stupid, but those are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how much one man can alter the price of things in the country. The cost of vegetables, hotel fees, and the lack of tourism due to anti-immigrant and nationalist policies are all going to hit businesses. And when he eases regulations, who benefits? Typically, huge corporations (or he and his friends). That makes it harder for you as a small or midsize business to compete. Too often, changes happen overnight, often without warning or transparency, making long-term planning nearly impossible. For example, try running a local remodeling company today. The tariffs on foreign goods have already increased the prices for many luxury appliances or materials (like wood), which you now have to pass on to your customers.
- Erosion of Trust and the Death of Civility: His use of widespread propaganda, lies, and gaslighting only serves to make you and your customers less trusting of others, leading all of us to feel less generous and, for many, more entitled and more emboldened. Have you noticed you’re getting more assholes as customers? We’d argue his leadership is one of the reasons. People, after all, simply mimic the behavior they now see as perfectly acceptable.
- It’s About Access and Those Who Curry Favor: Authoritarian environments generally breed corruption and favoritism based on access or those who try to curry favor with the current administration. Look at how Putin ran Russia. What you’re seeing Orange Nightmare do is roughly the same playbook. Who gets hurt? Well, disproportionately, it will be smaller and midsize businesses that don’t have the access or the clout to get the attention of those in power.
No. 2 Major Threat: Climate Risks
Regardless of your politics, climate change is a reality. The science is very clear. And it could spare few businesses. Small and midsize businesses especially, though, can face mounting challenges from extreme weather events, rising insurance costs, and supply chain disruptions. Have you thought about the implications of this for you and your customers? We’re not just talking about the recent heat wave that swept across the U.S. It’s the continued and sustained extreme conditions that should worry everyone. Here are a few ways climate risk and climate change can and will affect your business:
- Physical Damage: Floods, fires, and storms can wipe out inventory, disrupt operations, and force costly repairs.
- Rising Costs: Insurance premiums are climbing, and supply chain interruptions can drive up prices for raw materials and transportation. Also, with greater demand, electrical costs shoot up in the form of cooling (or heating in severe winters), with grid outages becoming more and more common.
- Market Uncertainty: As populations move and regions become less habitable, customer bases shift, and new competitors emerge in unexpected places. Take New Orleans after Katrina hit. Some local businesses took several years to recover, and many did not.
- Social Disruption: Even if you only sell digitally, climate refugees and social unrest can destabilize entire markets, making it harder to do business predictably.
The problem is that we’re not addressing this at all. And our current administration seems hell-bent on doubling down on fossil fuels, which only exacerbate the problem. (Really, ask any decent scientist.) Some would label this as the No. 1 existential threat to you and your business. Our client, FFI Solutions, for example, specializes in climate risk for institutional investors, a now-growing area that all businesses need to be concerned about.
No. 3 Major Threat: AI Isn’t Coming to Supplement Your Job, It Aims to Replace You
On LinkedIn, I see a lot of advice from many good-hearted people who talk about the need to adapt to the current AI revolution. It’s not here to replace you but to enhance what you do. And certainly, there’s an element of that which is true – at least right now and likely in the next few years.
But let’s not kid ourselves or sugar-coat what’s really coming. AI is not stopping at enhancement.
Ultimately, you have to ask: If a machine can be used to do something more cheaply and more effectively than you can do it, won’t it only be a matter of time before it replaces you or potentially your business? After all, a machine can work 24 hours a day. It won’t make mistakes. It will create things in minutes that would take days or even months for you to do, at a much more significant cost.
This is especially true if you run a digital business or provide any type of consulting or services. Agentic AI, which we’ve talked about in these pages, is already on the way (if not here, for the most part). These are basically AI systems designed to act autonomously, making decisions and taking actions to achieve stated goals with minimal human intervention. An AI agent will be able to perceive an environment, plan actions, and execute plans, often learning and adapting over time. Essentially, it’s AI with its own agency, capable of independent operation and problem-solving.
Ask Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google. Last month or so, I was watching a clip of him speaking about AI. He said: “In one year…We believe as an industry that the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.” He went on to discuss what he says will only be a few years away: “The computers… are learning how to plan. And they don’t have to listen to us anymore. We call that… artificial super intelligence (ASI)…This is the theory there will be computers that will be smarter than the sum of humans…People do not understand what happens when you have intelligence at this level.”
Artificial super intelligence. Who’s competing with that? Will you or your company?
In other words, in the very near future, our experts are saying we’re getting far beyond the capability of generative AI, where, already, you don’t know what’s real or what’s been created by a machine. We’ll be entering a period where computers will not only take over the duties of people, but some may be in charge and running the show. Just the immediate term threats are many:
- Job and Role Displacement: AI is automating tasks once handled by humans, from customer service to marketing content creation. This can make entire roles—and sometimes businesses—obsolete.
- Cybersecurity Threats: AI-driven attacks, including phishing, ransomware, and deepfakes, are becoming more sophisticated and harder to detect, putting sensitive data and reputations at risk.
- Loss of General Economic Activity and Consumer Income: Even businesses that seem immune to the immediate-term pain and require more in-person handling, such as restaurants, dentists, and home services companies, could certainly be affected by the economic wave that’s about to hit most modern economies. That is, without jobs or more sophisticated Universal Basic Income (UBI) policies in place, what money will there be to spend on those services? Outside of the already wealthy or those who own existing AI, the answer is murky.
In the long-term, it’s getting really unclear what role humans may play at all. (Gulp!) Have we really progressed to this point? The fact that we can’t really predict anything about commerce in the future says quite a lot.
What Does This Mean for You and Your Business
In the long run, what can you do about AI or any of these threats in particular? With the first two threats, authoritarianism and climate, our genuine belief is that both are potentially reversible. Voting for reasonable people and making a commitment to the planet first is something humans can do and can control. We have demonstrated this in the not-too-distant past. We can do it again with some determination.[1] This is especially true when it comes to voting, advocacy, and/or other sustainability efforts you undertake, which we don’t want to minimize by any means.
The trickiest one, to us, is AI.
And we believe, for the latter, there’s a short-term and long-term. First, the short-term.
- Invest in Authenticity: In a world of AI fakery and deepfakes, being real is your best defense. Authentic brands build trust, foster loyalty, and stand out in crowded markets. Transparency, accountability, and genuine storytelling are more important than ever. That doesn’t mean you can’t use AI to help you. AI can help you reduce the amount of time it takes you to create stories or content. But we always counsel, just use it to get started and help you with ideas. Just don’t be lazy and use it as is. Add your own insights and stories. Use real photos and videos.
- Double Down on Human Connection: Kind of related to the previous bullet, people still want to do business with real people (we hope) —not faceless algorithms. Human-to-human marketing builds empathy, trust, and lasting relationships. Personalize your interactions, listen to your customers, and make every touchpoint feel real and meaningful. Most of all, it’s time to lean into you.
- Stay Aggressive with Content: Content marketing remains one of the most powerful tools for growth. By consistently producing high-quality, relevant content, you boost visibility, engage your audience, and position your brand as a trusted authority. We’ve said it before, in an AI-driven world, content is still king.
In the long term, one of the things we suggest is to make the best choice you can right now, based on where you see the playing field shifting.
For example, if you know AI is advancing very quickly, ask yourself what that will mean for what we do as a business – in three to five years? You may not have the exact answer right now, but why not start giving it some thought?
One of the areas we’ve long argued is that, at some point in the mid-term of the AI revolution (4 to 8 years), there will be owners of proprietary AI agents and technologies, and there will be the users of AI agents/technologies. The owners will maintain income. The users will likely need some form of support (UBI or otherwise) to continue to subsist.
We think the question for many businesses and one we’re grappling with right now is: Can you become an owner of some sort? If you can, what type of AI agent do you invest in? What will it help people do? If you make or deliver physical products or services, at what point will robots take over that role that many people now occupy?
None of these are easy questions, and you can wrongly take a leap of faith now that may not pay off until much later. But why not start considering them before you’re left behind? It’s a time to make contingency plans and follow through with those. It’s also a time to be upfront with your employees.
That’s the right thing to do.
At Marketing Nice Guys, let us know if we can help you navigate this period of uncertainty, both from a marketing perspective and beyond. As always, feel free to reach out any time to have a free consultation. We wish you well as we all try to navigate this crazy time we live in.
[1] If not, though, it’s certainly important to consider your contingency planning.
